Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 2.349925 2.730324 3.151288 3.651518 4.229618 4.876639 5.655741
2026-02-01 1.613559 2.083559 2.659048 3.414853 4.380911 5.574124 7.160116
2026-02-08 1.207106 1.699883 2.355384 3.289628 4.585897 6.320293 8.817688
2026-02-15 0.967930 1.466487 2.177582 3.263161 4.876630 7.184640 10.737416
2026-02-22 0.835874 1.349236 2.126966 3.386856 5.373660 8.383684 13.290220
2026-03-01 0.702970 1.201124 1.997744 3.358651 5.621379 9.229488 15.418682
2026-03-08 0.594244 1.069501 1.867919 3.299544 5.797172 9.969230 17.464423
2026-03-15 0.517689 0.977427 1.785642 3.300789 6.063485 10.878993 19.904125
2026-03-22 0.491693 0.970011 1.846572 3.558125 6.807373 12.695082 24.163379
2026-03-29 0.444578 0.914615 1.810829 3.629972 7.218556 13.965371 27.596829
2026-04-05 0.402693 0.862093 1.771591 3.686835 7.604713 15.231804 31.183553
2026-04-12 0.360859 0.802601 1.709213 3.686762 7.874963 16.304046 34.523795
2026-04-19 0.319769 0.739925 1.635000 3.659776 8.104567 17.362376 38.065079
2026-04-26 0.268573 0.646713 1.483054 3.445436 7.911024 17.537438 39.809134
2026-05-03 0.232353 0.581382 1.381698 3.326750 7.908427 18.116079 42.514761
2026-05-10 0.207679 0.539085 1.325657 3.302611 8.115432 19.180185 46.461006
2026-05-17 0.195225 0.524695 1.332609 3.428716 8.692853 21.159018 52.807087
2026-05-24 0.175512 0.488234 1.280222 3.400490 8.891298 22.279444 57.261258
2026-05-31 0.156675 0.450739 1.219298 3.340768 9.001457 23.201524 61.358566
2026-06-07 0.142923 0.424722 1.183896 3.342067 9.268585 24.546515 66.717891
2026-06-14 0.141415 0.433095 1.241323 3.602579 10.261852 27.867811 77.688799
2026-06-21 0.132334 0.417793 1.231553 3.675313 10.754560 29.952180 85.651759
2026-06-28 0.123516 0.401738 1.217201 3.732876 11.213851 32.009863 93.835506